The Iona Gaels (17-6, 8-3) travel to Albany's Times Union Center to face the Siena Saints (19-4, 12-0) tomorrow night in a showdown of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference's top two teams. Iona has won eight straight games, and Siena holds the nation's longest streak at 13 games. The Saints won the first match-up on Dec. 7, 73-60.
Iona, like every other MAAC team this season, will be a big underdog against Siena. This is a different Iona team from when these two teams last met, however, so in anticipation of the game (which I'll be covering) I'll break down five keys for the Gaels to pull off the upset.
1. The Awe Factor
The Saints are the two-time MAAC champions and haven't lost a conference game yet this season. They've won eight in a row against Iona, last losing in January of 2006. The Gaels can't be intimidated by the Saints or their sold-out arena -- a building, by the way, where Siena has won 32 straight. In fact, Iona, a full-court pressing team, can use the crowd energy to its advantage.
Jonathan Huffman, one of only two seniors on this Iona team, told me after the Gaels' latest loss to Siena that, coming from the Big East (Huffman followed head coach Kevin Willard from Louisville), he looks at Siena like any other team. It's reasonable to think that cool confidence has rubbed off on his teammates. After all, Iona won at Providence this year and took Florida State and Baylor down to the wire in Orlando.
2. Keep A-Rod on the Court
Willard said it himself after Iona's most recent game: "He really is the backbone of our team." He was speaking of junior Alejo Rodriguez. At 6'8," 235 lbs., Rodriguez provides muscle for the Gaels' thin frontcourt. Huffman is a seven footer, but he prefers to play on the perimeter, leaving freshman Mike McFadden as the only other Iona forward who logs substantial minutes.
Rodriguez enters the contest with Siena coming off two straight double-doubles. He leads the MAAC in field goal percentage by a fairly wide margin, but it's on the defensive end that Rodriguez makes his mark, blocking and changing shots and pulling down boards. He can't do any of these things, of course, if he's not on the court. A-Rod fouled out of five of his first 14 games this season, but hasn't fouled out in nine straight. He'll go up against a Siena front line that includes three preseason first and second team All-Conference players.
3. Something's Gotta Give
Siena is the highest-scoring team in the MAAC, averaging 75 points in conference games. Iona is the best defensive team, allowing only 56 points per game. After Monday's game, Willard and his players spoke about how this Gaels squad is finally grasping the concept that defense wins games. But Siena's starting five poses an entirely different challenge. Four starters score in double-digits, and the one who doesn't, point guard Ronald Moore, leads the country in assists by a wide margin at a whopping 8.3 per game.
Edwin Ubiles is Siena's most talented player, but "Ronald Moore is the key to that basketball team," Willard said after Moore played 40 minutes against Iona in their last match-up. "If there's a better point guard in the country, I'd like to find him. He makes everything go. He handles the ball, handles it against pressure, gets in the lane when he needs to, and makes all the right decisions...he is just terrific."
Pretty high praise, huh? Well, Iona can counter with some great defensive guards, and if they can slow Moore down or force him into some turnovers, Iona's chances at winning improve greatly.
4. Contain Ubiles
Easier said than done. The versatile small forward hit nine-of-16 shots for a game-high 19 points in the first match-up. When the game was still in single digits midway through the second half, he scored 10 points in a six-minute span to put the game away.
Ubiles is a match-up nightmare. At 6'6" the senior can shoot over smaller guards, but he's too quick for bigger forwards. He's shooting over 50 percent from the field and, although he doesn't take many threes, he's over 40 percent from downtown. Ubiles has been hampered by a bad shoulder and has missed three of Siena's past five games. But he played 23 minutes in Saturday's win over Marist, scoring 15. He is expected to start tomorrow.
Not sure which player will draw Ubiles -- whoever it is, he will have his hands full at the defensive end. Forcing Ubiles into some tough shots will help Iona limit the high-powered Saints offense.
5. Dig Deep
It's often a key ingredient in any upset recipe: knock down some threes. Fortunately for the Gaels, they're tops in the MAAC, shooting 37 percent from deep. They make an average of 7.6 threes per game, and I think 10 will be needed to beat Siena. Iona can spread the floor with as many as four shooters -- Scott Machado, Kyle Smyth, Jermel Jenkins, Rashard McGill, Rashon Dwight, Milan Prodanovic, and Huffman can all hit from deep.
Stretching the defense by hitting outside shots will open the lane for Machado and others to penetrate. Deep bombs also tend to have the effect of quieting the crowd.
So there you have it. Pretty simple right? Five easy steps to victory. In all seriousness, Siena is going to be favored for a reason. This program has earned its position as the MAAC's elite. But the Saints hear the footsteps of some of the other MAAC programs, with Iona's likely being the loudest.
Willard has taken this team from a laughingstock (2-28 the year before he took over) to a legitimate conference force. Just hanging tough with the Saints would an improvement from years past, but a win would be perhaps Iona's biggest in several seasons.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Saturday, January 30, 2010
First Podcast: Marist vs. Iona, Halftime Radio Show
At TheSportsJournalists.com, today marks the inauguration of us podcasting from this blog. All of our podcasts can be found at podcasts.thesportsjournalists.com
Our first podcast was recorded by ICGAELS.COM during halftime of Iona's 61-42 win over Marist on Thursday, January 28th. It includes Andrew Kahn fielding questions from Ed Ingles. This is Andrew's first appearance on live radio so we'd love to hear your feedback regarding his performance. We would like to thank everyone at ICGAELS.COM for giving Andrew this opportunity.
The following link takes you to the podcast: Podcast: Marist vs. Iona, Halftime Radio Show . In iTunes, go to "Advanced->Subscribe to Podcast..." and enter the following URL http://www.thesportsjournalists.com/atom.xml
Our first podcast was recorded by ICGAELS.COM during halftime of Iona's 61-42 win over Marist on Thursday, January 28th. It includes Andrew Kahn fielding questions from Ed Ingles. This is Andrew's first appearance on live radio so we'd love to hear your feedback regarding his performance. We would like to thank everyone at ICGAELS.COM for giving Andrew this opportunity.
The following link takes you to the podcast: Podcast: Marist vs. Iona, Halftime Radio Show . In iTunes, go to "Advanced->Subscribe to Podcast..." and enter the following URL http://www.thesportsjournalists.com/atom.xml
Thursday, January 28, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament: National Championship Contenders
There are a lot of really good teams this year, but unlike last year there is not one that stands above the rest. North Carolina didn't run the table last year as some foolishly predicted, but they were undoubtedly the best team from start to finish. Their closest NCAA Tournament game was 12 points.
This year, people thought Kansas was the clear-cut No. 1, but Kentucky's resurgence has some people thinking otherwise. Below, you'll see my rankings of the teams with the best shot to win the 2010 NCAA Tournament (along with the odds, courtesy of Superbook.com, for each team to do so). As you'll see, at this point I believe there are only seven lucky teams that have a shot at hoisting the hardware in Indianapolis.
1. Kansas (odds: 7-4)
I don't care if Kentucky has replaced Kansas as the "it" team of the moment (although that might change after the Wildcats were upset on Tuesday night), I still believe the Jayhawks are the best team in the country. Xavier Henry is undoubtedly the second best freshman in the nation, and the inside-outside combination of senior point guard Sherron Collins and junior center Cole Aldrich is second to none.
I stress the class standing of Kansas' stars because that is what separates them from Kentucky. Experience is not something to dismiss come Tournament time. This is a Kansas team that has players who've been to two Final Fours and won a national title. Last year the Jayhawks won two tough games before falling to eventual runner-up Michigan State in a close game. My only concern is that KU's younger players defer too much to Collins. Henry might have to assert himself a bit more offensively if this team wants to realize its full potential. Even so, if I were filling out my bracket today I'd write "Kansas" six times.
2. Kentucky (4-1)
Two syllables: John Wall. He is the player of the year frontrunner at this point in the season and clearly the most talented player in college basketball. But he is a freshman. So is teammate DeMarcus Cousins. And Eric Bledsoe. In fact, of the nine Wildcats averaging at least 10 minutes per game, four are freshman and two are sophomores. That leaves junior Patrick Patterson and senior Ramon Harris as the only upperclassmen who see the floor regularly.
But does age matter? Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse to a title as a freshman in 2003, but all the teams led by a freshman have come up short since. Kentucky handled the last few minutes of the loss to South Carolina pretty well in my opinion. Despite coming up short, they didn't seem to panic or start pointing fingers. The real test will be how they respond after their first setback. With their next two games against ranked opponents (and upcoming trips to Vanderbilt and Tennessee), we'll see what this very young Kentucky crew is made of. One thing is for sure: the Wildcats are going to be a tough out come March.
3. Purdue (25-1)
Just when you thought my picks were getting boring...
Please keep in mind that this ranking is based on the assumption that point guard Lewis Jackson will return from a foot injury that's kept him out so far this season. If he decides to take a medical redshirt instead, Purdue is Elite 8, and maybe Final Four material, but I don't think they can win it all. I don't have any numbers in front of me but I imagine it's hard to win the title without a true point guard.
If Jackson does return though, I think he is the final piece to the puzzle and the Boilermakers -- much like fellow Big Ten school Michigan State last year -- will play in the Final Four in their home state. Of course that is a very big "if" considering it is Jan. 28th and Jackson hasn't played yet. The reports are optimistic though, or else I wouldn't even consider ranking Purdue so high.
This year, people thought Kansas was the clear-cut No. 1, but Kentucky's resurgence has some people thinking otherwise. Below, you'll see my rankings of the teams with the best shot to win the 2010 NCAA Tournament (along with the odds, courtesy of Superbook.com, for each team to do so). As you'll see, at this point I believe there are only seven lucky teams that have a shot at hoisting the hardware in Indianapolis.
1. Kansas (odds: 7-4)
I don't care if Kentucky has replaced Kansas as the "it" team of the moment (although that might change after the Wildcats were upset on Tuesday night), I still believe the Jayhawks are the best team in the country. Xavier Henry is undoubtedly the second best freshman in the nation, and the inside-outside combination of senior point guard Sherron Collins and junior center Cole Aldrich is second to none.
I stress the class standing of Kansas' stars because that is what separates them from Kentucky. Experience is not something to dismiss come Tournament time. This is a Kansas team that has players who've been to two Final Fours and won a national title. Last year the Jayhawks won two tough games before falling to eventual runner-up Michigan State in a close game. My only concern is that KU's younger players defer too much to Collins. Henry might have to assert himself a bit more offensively if this team wants to realize its full potential. Even so, if I were filling out my bracket today I'd write "Kansas" six times.
2. Kentucky (4-1)
Two syllables: John Wall. He is the player of the year frontrunner at this point in the season and clearly the most talented player in college basketball. But he is a freshman. So is teammate DeMarcus Cousins. And Eric Bledsoe. In fact, of the nine Wildcats averaging at least 10 minutes per game, four are freshman and two are sophomores. That leaves junior Patrick Patterson and senior Ramon Harris as the only upperclassmen who see the floor regularly.
But does age matter? Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse to a title as a freshman in 2003, but all the teams led by a freshman have come up short since. Kentucky handled the last few minutes of the loss to South Carolina pretty well in my opinion. Despite coming up short, they didn't seem to panic or start pointing fingers. The real test will be how they respond after their first setback. With their next two games against ranked opponents (and upcoming trips to Vanderbilt and Tennessee), we'll see what this very young Kentucky crew is made of. One thing is for sure: the Wildcats are going to be a tough out come March.
3. Purdue (25-1)
Just when you thought my picks were getting boring...
Please keep in mind that this ranking is based on the assumption that point guard Lewis Jackson will return from a foot injury that's kept him out so far this season. If he decides to take a medical redshirt instead, Purdue is Elite 8, and maybe Final Four material, but I don't think they can win it all. I don't have any numbers in front of me but I imagine it's hard to win the title without a true point guard.
If Jackson does return though, I think he is the final piece to the puzzle and the Boilermakers -- much like fellow Big Ten school Michigan State last year -- will play in the Final Four in their home state. Of course that is a very big "if" considering it is Jan. 28th and Jackson hasn't played yet. The reports are optimistic though, or else I wouldn't even consider ranking Purdue so high.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
MAAC Basketball: Midseason Questions
MAAC basketball starts up again on Thursday night with four games on the slate. The marquee match-up has to be Siena at St. Peter's; I'll be covering the Iona-Marist game. As I noted yesterday, the Saints and Gaels are two teams I'll be discussing as I answer some questions heading into the second half of conference play...
Will Siena go undefeated in conference play?
The Saints certainly have the talent to do so. They'll be favored in every MAAC game this season, and rightfully so. But math tells us that even if a team has a 90% chance of winning each game, that team is still unlikely to run the table in an 18-game schedule (or even in an eight-game schedule).
Siena still has the aforementioned road game at St. Peter's, as well as trips to Niagara, and Rider, two games that resulted in Siena's only two conference losses last season. The Saints also have tough home contests against top-tier MAAC teams Iona and Fairfield. If the Saints have a weakness, it's their lack of depth. I think a weak bench will sting them in a high-energy late-season game.
The Verdict: Siena will be upset at least once (and probably only once) in the regular season.
Can Iona and Fairfield stay hot?
Let's start with the Stags. As I wrote in yesterday's article, Fairfield is overachieving without Greg Nero. Freshman point guard Derek Needham is playing better than most expected, leading his team in points, assists, steals, and minutes played. If the freshman can hold up for the second half of the season, the Stags can remain near the top of the MAAC standings.
However, Fairfield's schedule is no walk in the park. Having already played last-place Marist twice, the Stags still have to travel to Siena, Rider, and Loyola, as well as host St. Peter's, Iona, and Niagara. None of those games will be easy. Relying so heavily on a freshman point guard is usually not a formula for late-season success, so I can see Fairfield's season going either way.
Iona doesn't rely on a freshman point guard, but Kevin Willard's starting lineup often consists of three or four underclassmen. There are 10 Gaels averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game -- six of them are freshmen or sophomores. Unlike other MAAC teams though, Iona has no player averaging more than 29 minutes a game (four of Siena's starters are averaging 30 mpg).
The deep bench has allowed Willard to play an up-tempo, full-court press style of attack that has often worn down opponents this year. Offensively, it's been a "different guy every night" type of season. I know Willard would prefer to be scoring in the 80's, which Iona hasn't done since Dec. 23rd, but he'll take the wins any way they come.
And I think those wins will continue to come for this young squad. Look at Iona's next six games: Marist, Canisius, at Siena, at Marist, Manhattan, Loyola. The Gaels will be favored in five of those games and I expect them to win all except Siena.
The Verdicts: Fairfield holds serve at home, but loses three of four on the road, which would put them at 12-6 in conference, a mark that should leave them no worse than third place. Iona, as I just mentioned, should win five of their next six. If they do that, even if they do lose their three road games (Siena, Fairfield, and St. Peter's), they'll be 12-6 just like Fairfield. Both of these teams are the real deal.
Which team, if any, will rise up?
Sorry, Marist. Loyola? Not this year. Manhattan, despite its proven ability to hang with anyone, has dug itself too deep a hole.
My team to watch in the second half is Rider. At only 4-6 in the MAAC and 11-11 overall, the Broncs certainly qualify. Remember, this is the team picked to finish third in the preseason poll. The schedule sets up favorably for a strong finish: of their final eight games, six of them are at home, including a Feb. 26th nationally-televised match-up with Siena.
Given that Rider has the preseason player of the year, senior Ryan Thompson, it can't be counted out just yet. Are the Broncs going to win the regular season title? Of course not. But don't be surprised if they get hot down the stretch and carry a bunch of momentum into the conference tournament.
The Verdict: Rider finishes strong, winning six of eight to put them at 10-8 in the conference. Come tournament time, watch out.
I welcome your thoughts and predictions in the comments section!
Will Siena go undefeated in conference play?
The Saints certainly have the talent to do so. They'll be favored in every MAAC game this season, and rightfully so. But math tells us that even if a team has a 90% chance of winning each game, that team is still unlikely to run the table in an 18-game schedule (or even in an eight-game schedule).
Siena still has the aforementioned road game at St. Peter's, as well as trips to Niagara, and Rider, two games that resulted in Siena's only two conference losses last season. The Saints also have tough home contests against top-tier MAAC teams Iona and Fairfield. If the Saints have a weakness, it's their lack of depth. I think a weak bench will sting them in a high-energy late-season game.
The Verdict: Siena will be upset at least once (and probably only once) in the regular season.
Can Iona and Fairfield stay hot?
Let's start with the Stags. As I wrote in yesterday's article, Fairfield is overachieving without Greg Nero. Freshman point guard Derek Needham is playing better than most expected, leading his team in points, assists, steals, and minutes played. If the freshman can hold up for the second half of the season, the Stags can remain near the top of the MAAC standings.
However, Fairfield's schedule is no walk in the park. Having already played last-place Marist twice, the Stags still have to travel to Siena, Rider, and Loyola, as well as host St. Peter's, Iona, and Niagara. None of those games will be easy. Relying so heavily on a freshman point guard is usually not a formula for late-season success, so I can see Fairfield's season going either way.
Iona doesn't rely on a freshman point guard, but Kevin Willard's starting lineup often consists of three or four underclassmen. There are 10 Gaels averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game -- six of them are freshmen or sophomores. Unlike other MAAC teams though, Iona has no player averaging more than 29 minutes a game (four of Siena's starters are averaging 30 mpg).
The deep bench has allowed Willard to play an up-tempo, full-court press style of attack that has often worn down opponents this year. Offensively, it's been a "different guy every night" type of season. I know Willard would prefer to be scoring in the 80's, which Iona hasn't done since Dec. 23rd, but he'll take the wins any way they come.
And I think those wins will continue to come for this young squad. Look at Iona's next six games: Marist, Canisius, at Siena, at Marist, Manhattan, Loyola. The Gaels will be favored in five of those games and I expect them to win all except Siena.
The Verdicts: Fairfield holds serve at home, but loses three of four on the road, which would put them at 12-6 in conference, a mark that should leave them no worse than third place. Iona, as I just mentioned, should win five of their next six. If they do that, even if they do lose their three road games (Siena, Fairfield, and St. Peter's), they'll be 12-6 just like Fairfield. Both of these teams are the real deal.
Which team, if any, will rise up?
Sorry, Marist. Loyola? Not this year. Manhattan, despite its proven ability to hang with anyone, has dug itself too deep a hole.
My team to watch in the second half is Rider. At only 4-6 in the MAAC and 11-11 overall, the Broncs certainly qualify. Remember, this is the team picked to finish third in the preseason poll. The schedule sets up favorably for a strong finish: of their final eight games, six of them are at home, including a Feb. 26th nationally-televised match-up with Siena.
Given that Rider has the preseason player of the year, senior Ryan Thompson, it can't be counted out just yet. Are the Broncs going to win the regular season title? Of course not. But don't be surprised if they get hot down the stretch and carry a bunch of momentum into the conference tournament.
The Verdict: Rider finishes strong, winning six of eight to put them at 10-8 in the conference. Come tournament time, watch out.
I welcome your thoughts and predictions in the comments section!
Monday, January 25, 2010
MAAC Basketball Midseason Report
February is almost here, we're past the halfway point in the conference season, and there have been enough games played for us to get a good look at all 10 MAAC teams. So it's time for some midseason awards. Which team has been the biggest surprise? Who is the front-runner for player of the year? Which teams are heading towards the postseason? Here are my thoughts on the key story lines so far this season...
The Surprises
Siena's non-conference slip-ups
The Saints are sitting pretty at 10-0 in the MAAC. They have looked fairly dominant this season and are certainly the favorites to repeat as conference champions. But should they fall in the conference tournament, they're in big trouble.
Siena dropped the ball in the non-conference, losing to Temple, St. John's, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa. The Saints did beat Northeastern, who sits atop the CAA. But the resume lacks that "signature win" the selection committee likes to see.
Iona's impressive start
In just the third year under head coach Kevin Willard, the Gaels are in second place in the MAAC with a 7-3 record. They've won six straight and have become "road warriors," winning seven of nine true road games this season, the biggest of which was a victory at Providence. "We played 18 road games last year," Willard said after a win at Manhattan last week. "They understand what it takes to win on the road. You've got to play defense."
After some early season inconsistency, Willard has Iona playing its best basketball of late. The Gaels have won six in a row and are 15-6 overall. In case you're not impressed with all of this, consider: Iona was picked ninth in the conference preseason coaches' poll.
Fairfield's similar (and nearly as impressive) start
Hats off to Fairfield head coach Ed Cooley, also in his third year. Like Iona, the Stags are 7-3 in conference. However, they did lose to the Gaels on Sunday. Even so, they are 14-6 overall, an impressive feat considering the injury bug that continues to bite this team.
After learning that star player Greg Nero's season was over before it began after, of all things, off-season sinus surgery, it meant that Fairfield would be without four of its top five scorers from last season. The answer? Freshman point guard Derek Needham, sixth in the MAAC in scoring (averaging 15.7 points in MAAC games) and third in assists, who's running away with the freshman of the year award.
The Stags were picked fourth in the preseason poll but that was before the coaches knew that Nero would be out. Fairfield lacks a big-time conference win but still has a few opportunities to get one.
The Surprises
Siena's non-conference slip-ups
The Saints are sitting pretty at 10-0 in the MAAC. They have looked fairly dominant this season and are certainly the favorites to repeat as conference champions. But should they fall in the conference tournament, they're in big trouble.
Siena dropped the ball in the non-conference, losing to Temple, St. John's, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa. The Saints did beat Northeastern, who sits atop the CAA. But the resume lacks that "signature win" the selection committee likes to see.
Iona's impressive start
In just the third year under head coach Kevin Willard, the Gaels are in second place in the MAAC with a 7-3 record. They've won six straight and have become "road warriors," winning seven of nine true road games this season, the biggest of which was a victory at Providence. "We played 18 road games last year," Willard said after a win at Manhattan last week. "They understand what it takes to win on the road. You've got to play defense."
After some early season inconsistency, Willard has Iona playing its best basketball of late. The Gaels have won six in a row and are 15-6 overall. In case you're not impressed with all of this, consider: Iona was picked ninth in the conference preseason coaches' poll.
Fairfield's similar (and nearly as impressive) start
Hats off to Fairfield head coach Ed Cooley, also in his third year. Like Iona, the Stags are 7-3 in conference. However, they did lose to the Gaels on Sunday. Even so, they are 14-6 overall, an impressive feat considering the injury bug that continues to bite this team.
After learning that star player Greg Nero's season was over before it began after, of all things, off-season sinus surgery, it meant that Fairfield would be without four of its top five scorers from last season. The answer? Freshman point guard Derek Needham, sixth in the MAAC in scoring (averaging 15.7 points in MAAC games) and third in assists, who's running away with the freshman of the year award.
The Stags were picked fourth in the preseason poll but that was before the coaches knew that Nero would be out. Fairfield lacks a big-time conference win but still has a few opportunities to get one.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Michigan Beats Indiana; Is NCAA Tournament Bid Still Possible?
In 2008, the year after the Notre Dame football team went 3-9, the Michigan football team did the same. Now, a year after a preseason top-15 Irish basketball squad failed to make the NCAA Tournament, it looks like the Wolverines could be headed down the same path.
Believe me, it hurts me to make that comparison.
I can't believe Michigan is only 9-7 (3-2 in the Big Ten). A few weeks ago I was concerned that a Tourney bid was slipping away. Now? It's out of reach, and John Beilein's boys have a big hill to climb just to get back into the conversation.
Not everyone was as surprised by this as I was. AnnArbor.com Michigan beat writer Mike Rothstein made the connection between these two teams back in November, before the season tipped off, stating in an interview with MGoBlog.com that he feared Michigan could miss the Tournament just like the Irish did in 2009. He covered Notre Dame last season for The Journal Gazette, and heading into his first season in Ann Arbor, he noticed the similarities.
Though I did find it interesting, the comparison didn't really concern me at the time. Although I wasn't surprised that the Wolverines were considered a top-tier Big Ten team, I was surprised to see them ranked so high (No. 15) in the preseason poll. And even after the season started collapsing, I didn't think to myself, "I should have seen this coming!" Just because Michigan's make-up, on paper, is similar to Notre Dame's, doesn't mean it should suffer the same fate. Two wrongs don't make a right.
"What gave me a feeling this might happen -- and I had it the second I watched this team in Orlando against any real competition -- was the lack of a reliable third scorer and a leadership void," Rothstein said via e-mail on Thursday, before Michigan beat Indiana 69-45 at Crisler Arena. "Despite a killer schedule, what did Notre Dame in a season ago was missing the little things/stability guy in Rob Kurz. This year the biggest issue for Michigan is all about personnel. People may talk about shooting and defense and yes, those are important, but the focus and intensity C.J. Lee and David Merritt brought to the Wolverines kept everyone else in line on every possession."
Even with minor personnel changes, it's hard to argue that the loaded Big East didn't contribute significantly to ND's demise. ND didn't have the most difficult non-conference schedule in the country last year, but they did head into Big East play with a 9-2 record, including a win over then-No. 7 (and eventual NCAA Tourney team Texas). So the theory that the Irish got swallowed up by a brutal conference slate certainly makes sense.
But what about Michigan? The Big Ten has been just as good as expected, but that's irrelevant as far as the Wolverines are concerned. Their troubles started before Big Ten play began, as they dropped games to Marquette, Alabama, Boston College (in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge), Utah, and Kansas, while failing to beat any team of note. How do you explain that?
Rothstein's reference to the seniors of last year's Michigan team, Merritt and Lee, seems more than plausible. They didn't fill up the box score, nor did they necessarily catch your eye with spectacular play. But they were fifth-year seniors who had been through some tough times.
"The leadership void is a big issue and that hole helped lead to some ill-advised shots in the offense," Rothstein said in the e-mail. "With this team, bad offense leads to poor defense and this is how the cycle is going to go."
Much like that Notre Dame team from a year ago, Michigan relies heavily on the outside shot and has been playing poor defense. When they're not hitting from deep, as has been the case for much of the season, and they're not getting enough stops on the defensive end, well, that's not exactly a formula for success.
So did Michigan buy into its own hype after receiving the high preseason ranking?
"While I don't think they thought they'd coast to a NCAA Tournament bid...I think they felt they were better than they were," Rothstein wrote. "At the time, that was bad. Now, I think they still believe the same thing and that is good for them because it keeps confidence. This stretch could be the rejuvenation point or the breaking point."
The stretch Rothstein referred to started with last night's game, which was a must win for the Wolverines. Now the real brutal slate begins -- No. 15 UConn on Sunday, followed by road games at No. 16 Wisconsin and No. 6 Purdue, and finishing with a home game vs. No. 8 Michigan State on Jan. 26.
If the Wolverines want to dance, they're first going to have to fight.
Believe me, it hurts me to make that comparison.
I can't believe Michigan is only 9-7 (3-2 in the Big Ten). A few weeks ago I was concerned that a Tourney bid was slipping away. Now? It's out of reach, and John Beilein's boys have a big hill to climb just to get back into the conversation.
Not everyone was as surprised by this as I was. AnnArbor.com Michigan beat writer Mike Rothstein made the connection between these two teams back in November, before the season tipped off, stating in an interview with MGoBlog.com that he feared Michigan could miss the Tournament just like the Irish did in 2009. He covered Notre Dame last season for The Journal Gazette, and heading into his first season in Ann Arbor, he noticed the similarities.
Though I did find it interesting, the comparison didn't really concern me at the time. Although I wasn't surprised that the Wolverines were considered a top-tier Big Ten team, I was surprised to see them ranked so high (No. 15) in the preseason poll. And even after the season started collapsing, I didn't think to myself, "I should have seen this coming!" Just because Michigan's make-up, on paper, is similar to Notre Dame's, doesn't mean it should suffer the same fate. Two wrongs don't make a right.
"What gave me a feeling this might happen -- and I had it the second I watched this team in Orlando against any real competition -- was the lack of a reliable third scorer and a leadership void," Rothstein said via e-mail on Thursday, before Michigan beat Indiana 69-45 at Crisler Arena. "Despite a killer schedule, what did Notre Dame in a season ago was missing the little things/stability guy in Rob Kurz. This year the biggest issue for Michigan is all about personnel. People may talk about shooting and defense and yes, those are important, but the focus and intensity C.J. Lee and David Merritt brought to the Wolverines kept everyone else in line on every possession."
Even with minor personnel changes, it's hard to argue that the loaded Big East didn't contribute significantly to ND's demise. ND didn't have the most difficult non-conference schedule in the country last year, but they did head into Big East play with a 9-2 record, including a win over then-No. 7 (and eventual NCAA Tourney team Texas). So the theory that the Irish got swallowed up by a brutal conference slate certainly makes sense.
But what about Michigan? The Big Ten has been just as good as expected, but that's irrelevant as far as the Wolverines are concerned. Their troubles started before Big Ten play began, as they dropped games to Marquette, Alabama, Boston College (in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge), Utah, and Kansas, while failing to beat any team of note. How do you explain that?
Rothstein's reference to the seniors of last year's Michigan team, Merritt and Lee, seems more than plausible. They didn't fill up the box score, nor did they necessarily catch your eye with spectacular play. But they were fifth-year seniors who had been through some tough times.
"The leadership void is a big issue and that hole helped lead to some ill-advised shots in the offense," Rothstein said in the e-mail. "With this team, bad offense leads to poor defense and this is how the cycle is going to go."
Much like that Notre Dame team from a year ago, Michigan relies heavily on the outside shot and has been playing poor defense. When they're not hitting from deep, as has been the case for much of the season, and they're not getting enough stops on the defensive end, well, that's not exactly a formula for success.
So did Michigan buy into its own hype after receiving the high preseason ranking?
"While I don't think they thought they'd coast to a NCAA Tournament bid...I think they felt they were better than they were," Rothstein wrote. "At the time, that was bad. Now, I think they still believe the same thing and that is good for them because it keeps confidence. This stretch could be the rejuvenation point or the breaking point."
The stretch Rothstein referred to started with last night's game, which was a must win for the Wolverines. Now the real brutal slate begins -- No. 15 UConn on Sunday, followed by road games at No. 16 Wisconsin and No. 6 Purdue, and finishing with a home game vs. No. 8 Michigan State on Jan. 26.
If the Wolverines want to dance, they're first going to have to fight.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Green Bay Packers Charles Woodson Named Defensive Player of the Year; Darrelle Revis Snubbed?
Charles Woodson, defensive back for the Green Bay Packers, has been named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, and deservedly so...sort of.
Woodson deserved the award -- his interceptions (9) and touchdowns (3) were tied for the league lead -- but perhaps Darrelle Revis, the New York Jets cornerback, deserved it more. (By the way, I am a Jets fan and an alum of the same school at which Woodson won the Heisman trophy, so I've got reason to like both guys.)
Revis became well known this season for his ability to shut down the league's best receivers. If you've watched a Jets game the past few weeks, you've seen the graphic: the one that shows how Revis has held the likes of Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Chad Ochocinco to minuscule numbers. If you're looking for a better shut-down corner than Revis, you've got a greater chance finding the Kiffin family vacationing in Knoxville.
Although I haven't seen the Packers nearly as much, I know that Woodson is more of a "do it all" corner. His versatility is evidenced by the interceptions (including the aforementioned three that he took to the house) and the four forced fumbles. He recorded 20 more tackles than Revis and notched two sacks as well. Woodson is still a great athlete and a true playmaker, even if he doesn't quite compare to Revis when it comes to locking up a wideout.
I've read some profiles on both Woodson and Revis recently and, not surprisingly, they have a lot in common. They both seem to understand the value of film study, impressing their respective coaches with their attention to detail. Knowing your opponents' tendencies is critical to a defensive back's success, and these two stars understand that.
So, was Revis robbed? Even though I was pulling for him, I can't honestly say he was. He would have received my vote -- in addition to Revis' personal accomplishments, the Jets had the best defense in the league, allowing the fewest yards, points, and passing yards -- but to say Woodson wasn't a worthy candidate is ridiculous. I was surprised by Woodson's margin of victory -- he received twice as many votes as Revis. I suppose it doesn't really matter, I just feel like this could have gone either way and the voting doesn't seem to reflect that.
Woodson's win, in a way, makes Colt McCoy's failure to win this year's Heisman Trophy even more surprising. These awards, unfortunately, can sometimes become "lifetime achievement" trophies. Sophomore Mark Ingram beat out McCoy, who had just as impressive a season as Ingram and was the senior with the remarkable career. While voters ignored McCoy's complete body of work (as they should), perhaps Woodson got extra votes because of his long, successful NFL career. While Woodson just finished his 13th season, Revis is only in his third.
The consolation prize for Revis? His season is still going.
Woodson deserved the award -- his interceptions (9) and touchdowns (3) were tied for the league lead -- but perhaps Darrelle Revis, the New York Jets cornerback, deserved it more. (By the way, I am a Jets fan and an alum of the same school at which Woodson won the Heisman trophy, so I've got reason to like both guys.)
Revis became well known this season for his ability to shut down the league's best receivers. If you've watched a Jets game the past few weeks, you've seen the graphic: the one that shows how Revis has held the likes of Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Chad Ochocinco to minuscule numbers. If you're looking for a better shut-down corner than Revis, you've got a greater chance finding the Kiffin family vacationing in Knoxville.
Although I haven't seen the Packers nearly as much, I know that Woodson is more of a "do it all" corner. His versatility is evidenced by the interceptions (including the aforementioned three that he took to the house) and the four forced fumbles. He recorded 20 more tackles than Revis and notched two sacks as well. Woodson is still a great athlete and a true playmaker, even if he doesn't quite compare to Revis when it comes to locking up a wideout.
I've read some profiles on both Woodson and Revis recently and, not surprisingly, they have a lot in common. They both seem to understand the value of film study, impressing their respective coaches with their attention to detail. Knowing your opponents' tendencies is critical to a defensive back's success, and these two stars understand that.
So, was Revis robbed? Even though I was pulling for him, I can't honestly say he was. He would have received my vote -- in addition to Revis' personal accomplishments, the Jets had the best defense in the league, allowing the fewest yards, points, and passing yards -- but to say Woodson wasn't a worthy candidate is ridiculous. I was surprised by Woodson's margin of victory -- he received twice as many votes as Revis. I suppose it doesn't really matter, I just feel like this could have gone either way and the voting doesn't seem to reflect that.
Woodson's win, in a way, makes Colt McCoy's failure to win this year's Heisman Trophy even more surprising. These awards, unfortunately, can sometimes become "lifetime achievement" trophies. Sophomore Mark Ingram beat out McCoy, who had just as impressive a season as Ingram and was the senior with the remarkable career. While voters ignored McCoy's complete body of work (as they should), perhaps Woodson got extra votes because of his long, successful NFL career. While Woodson just finished his 13th season, Revis is only in his third.
The consolation prize for Revis? His season is still going.
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